WILKES-BARRE — Teri Ooms, executive director at The Institute for Public Policy & Economic Development at Wilkes University, this week said the recorded populations in both Luzerne and Lackawanna counties decreased from 1990 to 2000, but increased slightly from 2000 to 2010.
Ooms discussed the first section of the Lackawanna-Luzerne County Indicators 2021 report that covers demographics — the size and composition of the two counties’ populations, and the dynamics driving population change.
Ooms said the section reports on population, age distribution, birth rates, ethnic diversity, and the change in household size, as well as other important characteristics of the region’s demographic makeup.
“The U.S. Census is the most accurate measure of population for a given geographic area,” Ooms said. “It is conducted once every 10 years. The 2020 Census effort was completed last year amid very difficult conditions due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Some data is expected to be released later this year.”
Ooms said for more current population data, the American Community Survey, is used as an estimate of population. She said both counties have seen slight declining trends since 2010, while Pennsylvania as a whole has seen slow but uneven population growth over the last decade.
Population Change since 2000:
• Lackawanna: -1.7%
• Luzerne: -0.6%
• Statewide: +4.2%
Ooms said there are three components of population change — births, deaths, and migration. According to the latest data, birth rates in both Lackawanna and Luzerne Counties have fluctuated from year to year, but remain lower than in the Commonwealth as a whole.
Migration data is sourced from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS). Though both counties experienced times of significant net inflow driven by migration into the region from neighboring states, this trend reversed around 2012.
“From 2012 to 2016, more residents left the region than entered, with higher outflow in Lackawanna County,” Ooms said. “Since 2017, the net outflow has slowed in both counties, and Luzerne County again recorded two straight years of net positive migration.”
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ooms said increases have been observed in housing costs and real estate market activity — a sign of migration into the region. A nationwide trend of migration out of large, high cost of living metro areas has been observed, though the scale of this migration into the region, and whether it will be permanent or temporary, is uncertain.
10 Year Net Migration
• Lackawanna: -5,139
• Luzerne: +1,155
Ooms said the age distribution of the two counties generally mirrored statewide trends. Older adults comprise a larger share of the population locally compared with the Commonwealth and children make up a slightly smaller share.
“This pattern has not changed drastically over the last several years,” Ooms said. “The relatively low ratio of children to senior citizens indicates potential challenges to the region’s future workforce, because there will be fewer residents to fill jobs as a large number of Baby Boomers continue to exit the workforce.”
This, however, is a national challenge, Ooms said. She said part-time and remote employment of older adults needs to be a consideration for businesses. Furthermore, the longer lifespans of many of today’s older adults means there will be an increased need for support services for older adults.
Although nearly 90 percent of Lackawanna and Luzerne counties’ total population has been White/Caucasian over the past several years, Ooms said the percentage of residents who are White/Caucasian alone has declined since 2000.
She said racial and ethnic diversity has been increasing in the two counties. The growth of the Hispanic/Latino population has been considerable, doubling over the last two decades and now near or greater than the statewide percentage in both counties.
The percentage of Asian Americans and African Americans in both counties has also grown substantially since 2000, Ooms said.
“Accurate statistics on population will continue to be significant when it comes to apportionment of legislative representation, allocation of state and federal funds, and remaining competitive as a region,” Ooms said.
The most recent decennial census was conducted in 2020, with results expected to be released soon.